Your Vacation Presents Don’t Have To Be Delivered By Diesel

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The 2026 vacation procuring season is quickly to be upon us, with present patrons and discount hunters perusing shops in individual and on-line. Behind the scenes, the US freight system has been working exhausting to move the products and presents, touring principally by truck as they make their means by means of ports, warehouses, and highways.

So, what impact will the rising value of gasoline and diesel gasoline have on the yr’s greatest procuring season? The historic shock in costs on the pump has pushed price will increase for the products shoppers purchase all through the economic system, together with vacation presents, as a result of prices to provide and ship items have elevated. Between January and October, the common nationwide value for a gallon of diesel rose almost 80 %.

Nevertheless it doesn’t should be this fashion. The vehicles transferring and delivering items all through the economic system don’t should be topic to the excessive price and volatility of the fossil gasoline market. Globally, companies are transitioning their fleets to zero-emission vehicles. Along with their public well being and environmental advantages, zero-emission vehicles (and battery-electric fashions specifically) supply important reductions in working prices in comparison with these powered by fossil fuels. This might help shield producers and shoppers from costly and risky gasoline costs and unhealthy air.

That may assist us all breathe a bit simpler.

This yr’s vacation procuring season is marked by a number of unsettling developments—report excessive gasoline costs and the second-largest month-to-month bounce within the Producer Worth Index (PPI) since 2010, in addition to the largest 12-month enhance within the PPI since 2022. This bounce within the PPI, the measure of the prices incurred by US companies to make, ship, and promote their items, was meaningfully pushed by the one largest month-to-month enhance in producer power prices up to now decade and a half. Moreover, September 2026 noticed the third largest enhance in transportation and warehousing prices underneath the PPI since 2010, solely behind April 2026 and March 2022—the months following the start of the present US-Iran battle and Russia’s battle on Ukraine, respectively.

Whereas Santa’s reindeer are primarily fueled by carrot snacks throughout the vacation season, in keeping with the Alaska Division of Fish and Sport, the remainder of our nation’s freight system is most frequently powered by soiled and more and more costly fossil fuels. In September, diesel gasoline costs hit report highs—topping as a lot as $9 per gallon at some retail gasoline stations. Diesel-fueled vehicles are the workhorse of the US freight system, carrying extra freight by weight than all different transportation modes mixed. Annually, tractor vehicles devour over 27 billion gallons of gasoline, and gasoline is the second-largest price enter to trucking after labor.

Greater gasoline prices can in the end be handed alongside to shoppers and contribute to larger value variance for items. That is significantly the case with sure meals costs. A 2023 examine in Vitality Economics discovered that gasoline value shocks accounted for almost 20 % of the value variance of cereals. Sadly, because of this even the reindeer aren’t resistant to fossil gasoline volatility.

Shoppers might by no means see a gasoline surcharge listed on a vacation present, however gasoline prices are embedded all through the provision chain. When diesel costs spike, it turns into dearer to maneuver merchandise between ports, warehouses, shops, and houses, even for carriers that hedge gasoline costs by means of bulk or futures gasoline agreements. Powering extra of these journeys with comparatively secure electrical energy can cut back one supply of sudden price strain earlier than merchandise attain procuring carts.

Battery-electric vehicles can present far better gasoline price predictability whereas additionally providing considerably decrease per-mile gasoline prices than fossil-fueled vehicles. Between January 2016 and September 2026 (the newest information month on the time of this publication), annual diesel value volatility averaged 3.75 instances that of economic electrical energy costs, in keeping with our evaluation of Federal Reserve and Vitality Data Administration information. Throughout this time, diesel costs noticed a month-to-month spike of better than 10 % seven instances, together with 4 instances in 2026. Diesel costs between February and March 2026 noticed the very best value spike by far at over 32 %. In contrast, the very best spike within the nationwide common industrial electrical energy value within the final decade was 4.4 %.

Whereas it’s true that each diesel and electrical energy costs have elevated this yr, the magnitude of these will increase is hardly comparable. Between January and September, the typical nationwide value for a gallon of diesel gasoline rose almost 80 % in comparison with simply two % for common industrial electrical energy charges.

Freight-adjacent communities pay the value with their well being.

Shoppers are paying for these larger petroleum costs on the pump and checkout traces, whereas oil firms and shareholders are seeing a windfall: each ExxonMobil’s and Chevron’s Q3 2026 earnings have been greater than double these of Q3 2025.

However the prices of our fossil fuel-powered freight system prolong far past our wallets.

Fossil-fueled medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are additionally the nation’s largest supply of smog-forming air pollution and account for the biggest share of the almost 10,000 untimely deaths related to transportation air pollution within the US every year, regardless of making up simply 13 % of the autos on our roads.

Vans are a very important supply of air pollution in areas close to the warehouses and logistics facilities that our vacation packages journey by means of. For the 66 million folks residing close to freight corridors, warehouses, ports, and railyards nationwide, the value of a fossil fuel-powered freight system is simply too typically paid for with their well being. Latest UCS analysis discovered that the 1.7 million folks residing close to 10 or extra freight services face a most cancers danger from air toxics that’s 32 % larger than the nationwide common.

Electrical vehicles can supply each public well being and financial safety.

Whereas freight operators can’t management geopolitics and gasoline costs, they will management which fuels they select to make use of. More and more, freight operators are contemplating the swap to electrical vehicles, which supply extra secure and reasonably priced fueling prices with far much less publicity to risky international oil markets. FedEx, for instance, not too long ago introduced plans so as to add 2,000 electrical supply vehicles to its rising zero-emission supply fleet.

The economics for zero-emission vehicles are more and more compelling—this is partially why we’ve seen continued adoption of electrical industrial autos regardless of the present federal management’s finest efforts to extend our reliance on fossil fuels. Even states not usually regarded as electrification front-runners have seen significant progress in zero-emission supply autos. In 2025, over 17 % of recent industrial vans in each Mississippi and Louisiana have been zero-emission autos (ZEVs). In Georgia, almost 35 % of recent industrial vans registered final yr have been electrical.

California continues to guide the nation in general deployments of zero-emission medium-and-heavy-duty autos, with zero-emission fashions accounting for over 24 % of all new car registrations in 2025. Whereas it is a slight backstep from 2024 ranges, California continues to see progress within the deployment of zero-emission tractor vehicles. In California, ZEVs comprise round 8 % of recent tractor vehicles registered in 2025, and it seems the momentum is simply getting began. Within the first three quarters of 2026 alone, California fleets utilized for state clear truck incentives for greater than 1,000 new electrical tractor vehicles—a transparent instance of rising curiosity and demand.

Momentum towards tractor truck electrification is selecting up in different elements of the nation as nicely. In September, Catalyst Mobility, a number one clear transportation nonprofit, introduced {that a} group of main companies, together with Microsoft and Pepsi, positioned a mixed order for two,500 battery-electric Tesla Semis—the biggest single order of zero-emission vehicles in US historical past. These vehicles can journey as much as 500 miles on a single cost at most authorized capability and regain 60 % of vary in a 30-minute cost. Earlier this yr, Pilot Journey Facilities introduced a partnership with Tesla to put in high-speed chargers for electrical semi-trucks throughout main freight corridors in California, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas. The primary of those stations is now operational.

Public coverage is required to beat remaining boundaries.

Regardless of spectacular momentum, personal investments and market forces alone are unlikely to reliably electrify our freight system at the wanted tempo. The freight business continues to face widespread adoption boundaries, together with larger upfront prices for a lot of zero-emission truck fashions and lack of entry to widespread, dependable industrial truck charging infrastructure. On the identical time, shoppers have restricted capacity to decide on shippers dedicated to cleaner freight. We can’t merely toggle a “inexperienced supply” possibility when procuring at a neighborhood retailer or on-line.

That’s the place public coverage is available in: to cut back boundaries to electrical truck adoption and speed up the transition towards a cleaner, extra reasonably priced freight system.

At a time when the federal authorities’s assist for freight sustainability and modernization has reversed and is undermining earlier progress, state and native governments have the chance and accountability to undertake and implement insurance policies and packages that construct momentum towards an electrified freight system. Particularly, they need to speed up zero-emission truck deployment the place it’s technically and economically possible as we speak, whereas addressing the technological and financial boundaries that restrict adoption elsewhere.

Insurance policies and packages that drive electrification as we speak whereas addressing boundaries may embody people who:

• Cut back upfront value boundaries and speed up the marketplace for zero-emission vehicles by lowering upfront value boundaries by means of sturdy, predictable, and accessible incentives and progressive financing;
• Speed up zero-emission truck charging infrastructure building by means of focused public investments and decreased boundaries to operation;
• Encourage electrical truck deployments in areas disproportionately impacted by freight air pollution and the place they’re almost definitely to achieve success by means of Oblique Supply Guidelines, clear miles requirements for freight autos, and zero-emission supply zones.

A greater method to ship

This vacation season, tens of millions of presents will transfer by means of an unlimited community of vehicles, warehouses, and distribution facilities earlier than we give them to buddies and family members. More and more, these vehicles don’t should run on diesel. Electrical vehicles supply a path towards a freight system that produces much less air pollution whereas lowering enterprise and shopper publicity to the risky international fossil gasoline market.

Nevertheless, widescale freight electrification is unlikely to happen on the tempo wanted with out efficient public coverage. Good public insurance policies and packages can speed up electrical truck deployment the place it already makes probably the most financial and environmental sense, whereas tackling the prices and infrastructure challenges that stay.

Shoppers don’t all the time have the choice or transparency to decide on cleaner freight, however we are able to push our elected representatives to pursue insurance policies and packages that ship a extra sustainable method to transfer the economic system.

In case you’re an early-career scientist, seasoned scientist, or technical skilled, you may be part of our science community for alternatives to advocate for smarter transportation insurance policies.

Courtesy of The Equation, UCS. By Sam Wilson.