Pressurized Metal, Lacking Demand: Germany’s Hydrogen Spine In Power Flows

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The German hydrogen spine with out clients or suppliers—a pipeline from nowhere to nowhere—is actual metal within the floor, pressurized and defended as inevitable, but it’s being constructed for an vitality system that doesn’t want it. That declare sounds provocative till the vitality flows are specified by full. When Germany’s vitality system is examined via three full Sankey diagrams, the case for a nationwide hydrogen vitality spine dissolves into an issue of mismatched assumptions fairly than lacking ambition. The spine exists as a result of hydrogen is handled as an vitality service of first resort and assumes upkeep of commodity industrial use instances in Germany, as a substitute of upkeep of high-value add expert business. The flows present it’s, at greatest, a distinct segment materials enter and, at worst, a pricey detour.

The primary Sankey describes Germany’s vitality system because it truly operated in 2024. Major vitality inputs totaled roughly 2,900 TWh. Fossil fuels dominated, with oil, fuel, and coal offering nearly all of that vitality. Electrical energy era transformed a big share of these fuels into energy, rejecting a considerable fraction of vitality as warmth at energy vegetation and engines. Transport alone rejected greater than 500 TWh as waste warmth from inner combustion engines. Buildings burned fuel and oil immediately, rejecting warmth via flues and poorly insulated envelopes. Business mixed gasoline combustion, course of warmth, and electrical energy with giant losses at every step. The important thing function of this Sankey shouldn’t be the scale of any single stream however the width of the rejected vitality stream. Properly over half of major vitality by no means delivered helpful companies.

This primary diagram issues as a result of it establishes what decarbonization should change. It isn’t solely about swapping fuels. It’s about collapsing loss pathways. The as-is Sankey reveals that Germany’s local weather drawback is basically the effectivity drawback embedded in combustion and thermal conversion. Any pathway that preserves these conversion chains will battle, no matter how inexperienced the upstream gasoline seems.

The second Sankey represents a totally electrified, renewables-based finish state that delivers the identical vitality companies as 2024 with out fossil fuels. Major vitality falls sharply as a result of wind, photo voltaic, hydro, geothermal, and ambient warmth change combustion. Electrical energy turns into the dominant vitality service. Warmth pumps transfer ambient warmth into buildings and low temperature industrial processes with coefficients of efficiency round 3, that means 1 kWh of electrical energy delivers roughly 3 kWh of warmth. Transport shifts to battery electrical autos the place roughly 80% {of electrical} enter turns into movement as a substitute of 20% for gasoline. Scrap-based electrical arc furnaces dominate steelmaking, with some biomethane direct discount and import of inexperienced iron from iron ore and renewables wealthy jurisdictions like Australia, Brazil and Sweden. Direct electrical heating covers excessive temperature processes the place attainable.

On this Sankey, complete vitality companies stay fixed at about 1,050 TWh. Residential companies stay round 410 TWh, business round 183 TWh, industrial round 326 TWh, and transport round 135 TWh. What adjustments is the rejected vitality. It collapses from greater than 1,200 TWh to nicely underneath 400 TWh. The electrical energy grid expands, imports and exports rise to clean variability, however the system turns into less complicated. There are fewer conversion steps, fewer locations to lose vitality, and fewer property that should be sized for peak thermal output. This diagram already meets Germany’s local weather targets with out hydrogen enjoying a cloth position as an vitality service.

Germany’s hydrogen strategy-era projections assumed complete home demand of roughly 110–130 TWh throughout refining, petrochemicals, ammonia, metal, transport, energy era, and e-fuels, however a sensible end-state evaluation collapses that determine to maybe 4–14 TWh, probably nearer to the underside finish of that vary. Oil refining demand of 25–30 TWh disappears solely as gasoline refining declines. Hydrogen used immediately or via e-fuels, collectively projected at 25–40 TWh, are eradicated as direct electrification dominates. Home metal, as soon as assumed to require near 30 TWh, falls to zero as scrap availability, electrical arc furnaces, and imported clear iron items displace hydrogen-based direct discount, with any residual discount extra prone to depend on biomethane earlier than hydrogen. Energy era shrinks from a projected 10–20 TWh to at most 0–1 TWh as a type of restricted capability insurance coverage fairly than a cloth vitality supply, however realistically that is higher served by biomass to biomethane working in current fuel era items maintained for the aim.

What stays is basically petrochemicals, maybe 4–8 TWh for hydrogenation and purification the place hydrogen is chemically unavoidable, and a small residual of home ammonia manufacturing in area of interest instances, probably as much as 5 TWh, with imports of commodities akin to inexperienced ammonia, iron and methanol overlaying most wants. The result’s an order-of-magnitude hole between the hydrogen volumes Germany deliberate its spine round and the volumes its industrial system is prone to require, underscoring how infrastructure sizing drifted far past lifelike demand.

The third Sankey introduces hydrogen into the already decarbonized system. That is deliberate. Hydrogen right here shouldn’t be changing fossil fuels. It’s changing environment friendly electrification. About 98 TWh of hydrogen is inserted on the level of use, excluding refinery demand and buildings. Producing that hydrogen requires about 152 TWh of further electrical energy at present electrolyzer efficiencies. Electrolysis alone rejects roughly 54 TWh. Hydrogen then flows into industrial feedstocks, transport, e-fuels, and energy era.

For industrial feedstocks, hydrogen works as supposed. Petrochemicals, ammonia, and a few metal processes want hydrogen as a cloth enter. Within the Sankey, roughly 54 TWh flows into industrial feedstocks and passes immediately into vitality companies with no further rejected vitality. That is the slender case the place hydrogen is sensible, assuming it’s inexperienced and if the hydrogen is reasonable, which won’t be the case in Germany. It isn’t an vitality service right here. It’s a molecule wanted for chemistry. In every case, the precursor commodity feedstocks hydrogen is used to fabricate are rather more cheaply made elsewhere and transported as bulk commodities to Germany as uncooked iron ore, oil and pure fuel are right now.

Elsewhere, the losses stack rapidly. Hydrogen to energy flows via gasoline cells at round 60% effectivity. From roughly 22 TWh of wind and photo voltaic electrical energy transformed into 14 TWh of hydrogen, solely about 8 TWh finally returns to the grid. The remainder is rejected. E-fuels fare worse. Hydrogen mixed with captured CO2 via Fischer-Tropsch or comparable pathways delivers round 40% of the hydrogen vitality as liquid gasoline. Combustion in engines then converts roughly 20% of that into movement. The Sankey reveals this clearly. Hydrogen is was electrical energy, then into gasoline, then into warmth, with rejected vitality at each step.

Within the electrified Sankey, transport takes about 132 TWh of electrical energy plus 25 TWh of biomass-derived biofuels for aviation and delivery to ship 135 TWh of transport companies, with about 22 TWh rejected. Within the hydrogen-maximalist Sankey, electrical energy is diverted to electrolysis, hydrogen is compressed and transported, then transformed again into electrical energy or burned in engines. The identical 135 TWh of transport companies now requires way more major vitality and produces extra rejected vitality. Nothing is gained besides compatibility with legacy fueling ideas.

Energy era from hydrogen is comparable. Hydrogen is framed as backup, however the Sankey reveals it as an costly loop. Wind and photo voltaic generate electrical energy. Electrical energy produces hydrogen. Hydrogen produces electrical energy. Every step sheds vitality. If backup is required, direct grid reinforcement, demand response, storage, or interconnection all protect extra of the unique vitality. Hydrogen backup solely turns into engaging if one assumes that electrical energy can’t be trusted, which contradicts the premise of the electrified system.

Producing 98 TWh of hydrogen on the level of use requires a scale of infrastructure that’s straightforward to underestimate when mentioned in summary tonnages. At an electrolyzer effectivity of roughly 65% on a decrease heating worth foundation, that hydrogen output implies about 150 TWh of devoted electrical energy enter annually. Supplying that electrical energy with a 3:1 wind to photo voltaic cut up requires about 40–45 GW of wind and 35–40 GW of photo voltaic underneath German capability components (~30% wind, ~11% photo voltaic). These mills then feed an electrolyzer fleet of roughly 30 to 35 GW, relying on assumed utilization, with lifelike operation nearer to 4,000 to 4,500 full load hours per 12 months as a result of electrolyzers should comply with variable renewable output until additional overbuilding is accepted.

Past era and electrolysis, the system additionally requires hydrogen compression, drying, and energy electronics, giant scale storage to bridge seasonal mismatches between manufacturing and use on the order of 10 to fifteen TWh in salt caverns, smaller volumes of pressurized storage for every day balancing and distribution, and a devoted hydrogen transport community. In Germany’s personal planning this spine runs near 9,000 km, largely repurposed from fuel pipelines however nonetheless requiring new compressors, valves, monitoring techniques, and supplies upgrades.

On the demand aspect, hydrogen use in energy era implies gasoline cells or generators sized for a number of gigawatts of peak capability regardless of low annual utilization, whereas transport purposes require car tanks, refueling stations, and security techniques distinct from the electrical energy grid they displace. Taken collectively, manufacturing 98 TWh of hydrogen shouldn’t be a marginal add-on to a renewables system however a parallel vitality infrastructure layered on prime of wind, photo voltaic, and grids that already ship the identical companies extra immediately. In an upcoming article I’ll attempt to quantify the additional value and time it might take to construct this unneeded infrastructure.

The comparability throughout the three Sankeys is instructive. Power companies, the truly helpful vitality to the financial system, are similar in all three. What adjustments is the width of the rejected vitality stream and the complexity of the system. The hydrogen-maximalist Sankey has extra bins, extra arrows, and a thicker rejected vitality band than the renewables-only Sankey. That thickness represents actual electrons generated, paid for, and discarded. Complexity shouldn’t be resilience on this case, it’s simply complexity.

That is the place the hydrogen spine narrative runs into hassle. A nationwide hydrogen spine assumes giant, steady hydrogen flows as an vitality service. The Sankeys present that when the system is inspired, these flows should not wanted. Industrial feedstocks require restricted, localized hydrogen supply. E-fuels and hydrogen transport displace extra environment friendly options. Hydrogen to energy reintroduces losses that electrification eliminated. The spine is sized for a system that by no means seems within the physics.

This doesn’t imply hydrogen disappears. It means hydrogen returns to its correct scale. A couple of TWh for feedstocks. Focused pipelines connecting producers to particular customers. None of this requires a pressurized nationwide vitality spine designed to maneuver tons of of TWh.

The worth of the Sankey diagrams shouldn’t be rhetorical. They impose accounting self-discipline. They power each promise to move via physics. When that’s performed, the hydrogen spine seems to be much less like a lacking hyperlink and extra like an artifact of path dependence from fuel infrastructure and industrial behavior. The metal might already be within the floor, however the vitality system it assumes shouldn’t be one Germany must construct.