Tesla Hasn’t Had A Profitable New Product Launch Since JB Straubel Stepped Down As CTO

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As has been extensively reported, Tesla is about to finish Cybertruck manufacturing. The Cybertruck has been a stunning failure. I’m certain there are extra detailed analyses on the market someplace, however this quick response on X from Ben McCombe that Tina Casey included in her article on the matter sums it up very effectively:

“Put in tooling to construct 125k Cybertrucks a 12 months.

“Bought 70k over 3 years.

“Spent $2bn on analysis and growth.

“Made simply $100m in gross income from gross sales.

“Internet challenge lack of $1.9b”

That’s fairly wild. A internet challenge lack of round $2 billion. Now, I’ve to confess that I haven’t truth checked the numbers right here, however what we all know for sure is that Tesla deliberate to provide a number of Cybertrucks per 12 months and ended up producing a small fraction of that focus on. In truth, the annual gross sales goal for the Cybertruck was increased than 125,000 — it was 250,000, with a aim of getting as much as 500,000!

The Cybertruck was overestimated as having extra reservations than any car in historical past and was supposedly going to shatter data and remodel the market. I warned folks on many events that the reservation whole was not an actual reservation whole and was positively not a dependable indicator of demand as a result of a) a reservation solely required a $100 refundable deposit, and b) a ton of individuals made reservations after Elon Musk stated that you possibly can lock within the value of lifetime Full Self Driving when making a reservation (so, you’d solely need to pay $6,000 for FSD regardless of how a lot the price of it went up within the following years). Anyway, the Cybertruck had different points as effectively when it lastly arrived. It value about twice as a lot because it was imagined to value and it had about half as a lot vary because it was imagined to have. In different phrases, it was not even near the car it was imagined to be — its vary per greenback value was about ¼ what it was imagined to be.

The Cybertruck was imagined to be the following large factor after the Tesla Mannequin Y. It was imagined to disrupt the large US pickup truck market. The Mannequin S was an excellent and extensively acclaimed automobile, if a bit dearer than the mass market may afford. The Mannequin S did actually compete fantastically effectively with the leaders in its section, the BMW 7 Sequence and Mercedes S-Class. The Tesla Mannequin X introduced an identical providing in a bigger package deal with some enjoyable additional components (falcon-wing doorways, self-presenting doorways, a 3rd row). The Tesla Mannequin 3 then utterly shook the automotive world as an incredible market phenomenon and maybe the most important product launch in historical past (when it comes to whole income). The Tesla Mannequin Y was mainly the Mannequin 3 in a extra fashionable crossover package deal and ultimately grew to become a a lot increased promoting car. In truth, it grew to become the very best promoting car mannequin of any type in a number of years. Then JB Straubel stepped down as CTO.

Because of their EV passions, JB Straubel and Elon Musk had been launched to one another and had lunch collectively to speak about electrical airplanes (Elon’s dream) after which electrical automobiles (as a result of JB talked extra sense into Elon). Then the 2 of them had been launched to Marc Tarpenning and Martin Eberhard, who had based Tesla Motors and simply barely acquired began on the thought. After some time, Tarpenning and Eberhard left the corporate, and Musk and Straubel actually led its growth and progress into an automotive superpower (as briefly described above). Since JB Straubel stepped down from his position as CTO of Tesla, nevertheless, if one thinks about it, it’s exhausting to establish any profitable product launch from the corporate or a lot vital enchancment in any respect.

Straubel left his CTO place in July 2019. The Mannequin Y was unveiled in March 2019 and was about ⅔ the identical because the Mannequin 3. It might appear that getting the Mannequin Y designed and ready for launch was the final large challenge Straubel labored on. (Notice that the Semi was unveiled in November 2017 however was lengthy delayed resulting from battery provide, based on Elon Musk.) Because the Mannequin Y, what vital product launch have we seen from Tesla? There was the Cybertruck, as we’ve already mentioned. That was unveiled in November 2019. When you consider the timing now, did Straubel disagree strongly with Musk on the Cybertruck and resolve it was time to maneuver on when Musk pushed ahead along with his concept for an electrical truck? It took one other 4+ years for Tesla to begin delivering the Cybertruck, in distinction to Mannequin Y deliveries beginning in January 2020, lower than a 12 months after the mannequin was unveiled. Extra not too long ago, the Cybercab has been developed, unveiled, and is now in manufacturing. A client automobile smaller and cheaper than the Mannequin 3 was by no means developed and unveiled — only a stripped down, decontented Mannequin 3 — and there mainly haven’t been some other product unveilings since Straubel left his position as CTO. Elon Musk has revealed a few considerably scattered, rambling “grasp plans,” however we haven’t gotten any vital new merchandise apart from the Cybertruck and the simply arriving Cybercab.

Even trying over on the power storage facet of issues, the Tesla Megapack was launched in July 2019, the month Straubel stepped down from his position as CTO. Did Straubel simply resolve he had accomplished sufficient as soon as he had completed the Megapack launch and gotten the Mannequin Y basically prepared for market? Did he have conflicts with Musk on the place to take the corporate from there?

Sure, there’s been incremental product growth and refreshed variations of Tesla automobiles and power storage programs. There are nonetheless loads of engineers engaged on bettering issues. Nonetheless, there doesn’t appear to be the identical management in new product growth, and there additionally isn’t the identical sensible, moderating component that Straubel seemingly offered to Musk’s extra wild, grandiose, sci-fi impressed goals and concepts.

Maybe that is all misunderstanding the roles of the 2 males to some extent. Maybe issues wouldn’t be a lot completely different if Straubel had stayed within the CTO position and had the identical affect he had earlier than leaving. He’s nonetheless on the board of administrators. (What that really means is unclear, although.) Maybe Tesla’s success and enterprise would nonetheless be based totally on the Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y, with out new transformative merchandise. Or maybe we might have had a extra regular pickup truck from Tesla, an electrical van, higher batteries, a greater market rollout of the Semi, and different merchandise. Maybe the Cybertruck, an epic product failure, by no means would have been proven to the product and overestimated unrealistically with specs and figures disconnected from what was going to be doable. Maybe we’d have a Mannequin C (inexpensive, compact Tesla) moderately than a Cybercab. Maybe Tesla could be a really completely different firm.

Who is aware of? We don’t know the ins and outs of JB Straubel and Elon Musk’s relationship, or how a lot Straubel truly led Tesla in his CTO position. We don’t understand how a lot Straubel tampered down Musk’s worst instincts or guided product growth. We nonetheless actually don’t even know why Straubel left. In response to Tesla, it was in order that he may focus extra time on Redwood Supplies, however why wasn’t that enterprise inside the umbrella of Tesla within the first place? Vertical integration has lengthy been a key component of the corporate. Who is aware of? There’s so much we don’t know and by no means will. Nonetheless, what we do know is that since JB Straubel stepped down from his position as CTO of Tesla, we haven’t seen a major, profitable new product launch on the firm. We’ll have to attend a bit longer to see if the Cybercab is one, and whether or not that units a brand new, optimistic course for the way forward for the corporate or not.

Featured photograph from Worldwide Transport Discussion board (CC BY NC-ND 2.0 license)